Reasoning Gaps

Hasty Generalization

Drawing a broad conclusion from a sample that is too small, unrepresentative, or cherry-picked.

Real-world example

"I've met three people from [country X] and they were all rude — people from [country X] are rude." More insidiously: "Three companies in our sector tried remote work and failed — remote work doesn't work." The sample is small, selection bias is likely (we hear about the failures), and the conclusion is stated as universal.

Why it bypasses reasoning

Anecdotes feel real in a way that statistics don't. "I know someone who..." bypasses the abstract and makes a claim vivid and personal. The vividness creates an illusion of representativeness — we treat the salient example as typical even when we have no reason to believe it is.

Discerno signal

What to watch for

Universal claims ("always," "never," "all," "none") based on a handful of examples. Ask: "How many cases is this based on, and how were they selected?"

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